Lucid Puts Out SOLID Q1 Numbers! ⚠️ My Take on BIG Lucid Updates | Key Levels to Watch
Overall Thesis
Lucid's Q1 production and delivery numbers (3,109 deliveries, 2,212 produced) are solid despite bad timing with tariff-driven market chaos, and the $1B convertible note is less dilutive than feared due to a capped-call transaction.
Narratives
The speaker recalibrates his initial negative take on the $1B convertible note after noting the capped-call transaction limits dilution, making it effectively a very cheap 1.25% loan. Q1 deliveries of 3,109 vehicles are strong and validate that the promotional campaigns worked. Q1 revenue estimate came in slightly below the $250M analyst consensus at $232-236M, but the speaker notes Lucid has previously beaten its own estimates. Saudi Arabia's royal procession footage showing Lucid vehicles underscores its luxury status in the kingdom.
Key Arguments
- Q1 deliveries of 3,109 beat expectations and justify management's guidance confidence
- The capped-call transaction on the $1B note limits dilution — net effect is essentially a cheap 1.25% loan
- Q1 revenue guide of $232-236M is below analyst consensus of $250M, but Lucid has historically beaten its own estimates
- Lucid EVs prominently visible in Saudi royal procession footage demonstrates premium status in key market