Why LEAKED Rideshare Numbers Are SUPER BULLISH for Robotaxi and Tesla Stock

Jo BhakdiJun 17, 2025Watch on YouTube ↗

Overall SentimentBullishStrength: 85%

Overall Thesis

Bhakdi argues that leaked Uber/Lyft/Waymo pricing data reveals rideshare prices are much higher per mile than he assumed, making Tesla's robotaxi margins even more attractive. He updates his model to show Tesla only needs 1,800 deployed robotaxis (down from 5,000) to hit an inflection point that forces Wall Street to raise price targets toward $1,000 per share.

Narratives

TSLATesla

Strongly Bullish

Leaked rideshare pricing data shows Tesla can charge $3 per mile with $1 COGS and still be 6x cheaper than Waymo, lowering the robotaxi deployment threshold needed to force analyst upgrades toward $1,000 to just 1,800 robotaxis.

Key Arguments

Median Uber/Lyft/Waymo prices are much higher than previously assumed ($15-19 per kilometer for Waymo).
Waymo's price elasticity at rush hour spikes to $28/km, showing autonomy vendors can't keep prices low.
Tesla at $3/mile and $1/mile COGS yields $2 free cash flow per mile.
1,800 deployed robotaxis hits 5% of 2024 total Tesla free cash flow, the forcing function for analyst upgrades.
Expected scaling scenario now crosses the green line around December-January 2026 (moved from April-May).
Fast scaling scenario crosses October-November 2025.

Analyzed with manual_claude_session | Extraction manual_v1 | Cost: —