They're Wrong about Tesla Stock | Going to $775 Target.
Overall SentimentBullishStrength: 85%
Overall Thesis
Tesla stock is headed to $775 per share and beyond, with the chain problem being solvable through technical solutions like occupancy networks and temporal context, enabling Full Self-Driving scaling.
Narratives
TSLATesla
Strongly BullishKevin argues Tesla's robotaxi (Cyber Cab) rollout, full self-driving improvements via hardware 4/5 and better AI compression, and a new margin stack (car sale + FSD subscription + platform/licensing fee) support a bull case price target of $775 per share. He believes concerns about the 'chain problem' and hardware 3 limitations are overblown and not existential, while the real gating factor is how fast Tesla can compress edge-case validation to scale robotaxis across new cities.
Key Arguments
- Cyber Cab will use superior hardware (4 plus, more RAM/compute) that solves the 'chain problem' via occupancy networks, temporal context, and skip connections.
- Tesla will earn multiple margin streams: car sale margin, FSD subscription margin (~90%+), and a platform/licensing fee (~6%) similar to a franchise model.
- Once Tesla proves it can expand robotaxi service to new cities in 30-90 days instead of ~436 days like Austin, that is when 'you need to get excited about Tesla stock' because real scale begins.
- Tesla is losing US EV market share more slowly (-16% YoY) than the broader EV market (-30% YoY) as legacy automakers retreat, leaving Tesla as the dominant EV/FSD option.
- If Tesla gets ride cost under $1/mile, Waymo becomes too expensive to compete because its model isn't as scalable.
Predictions (1)
BullTarget: $775
pendingDetails
Hedges & Caveats
- Hardware 3 limitations require computational upgrades to implement solutions
- Full Self-Driving deployment timeline uncertain
- Roadster launch timing not specified
- Depends on successful execution of multiple technical solutions simultaneously
Analyzed with claude-sonnet-5 | Extraction v1.0.0 | Cost: $0.07