What is Happening w Lucid TODAY ⚠️ Adam Jonas Massive Downgrade │ Bullish Options Activity
Overall Thesis
Adam Jonas downgraded the entire US auto sector dragging Lucid down, but 75% of options flow is bullish with some activity targeting $6 by November 15th, suggesting informed money sees a catalyst coming while macro rate-cut tailwinds are building.
Narratives
Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas downgraded the entire US auto sector, sending Lucid down 2.39% despite holding up better than Rivian. Despite the headline pressure, 75% of options flow is bullish with some calls targeting $6 by November 15th (possibly betting on a Gravity reveal or earnings catalyst). Rate cut probability of 59.4% for 50bp in November supports the bullish case. The speaker gives Adam Jonas credit for his past accuracy on LCID price targets while acknowledging the downgrade creates near-term pressure.
Key Arguments
- Adam Jonas sector downgrade creating unnecessary selling pressure on LCID
- 75% of options flow bullish despite the downgrade - counter-signal
- Some options targeting $6 by November 15th - possible Gravity/earnings catalyst bet
- 59.4% likelihood of 50bp cut in November, plus another 25bp in December
- Shorts only increasing 721K shares - easing off recent aggressive increases