Tesla Scale Revealed; Massive Future Unfolding!!
Overall Thesis
Randy Kirk + CERN Basher break down Q1 2026 earnings. Takeaway: FSD is crossing an inflection where subscription revenue offsets declining regulatory credits. FSD fleetwide take rate ~14% (likely ~30% US/Canada); daily FSD miles per subscriber grew from 11 → 19 YoY; 10B cumulative FSD miles expected May 6. CERN: 'this is the year when everything is going to be finished — Optimus, Semi, robo-taxi, FSD'. Operational cash balance $44B comfortably funds $25B CAPEX.
Narratives
The FSD inflection is the story this quarter — not the raw earnings number. FSD take rate fleetwide ~14% (reversing a long downtrend), with incremental take rate on Q1 deliveries at 50% (probably 30% run-rate adjusting for US-stop-selling effect). Daily miles per FSD subscriber grew from 11 → 19 YoY. Cumulative FSD miles cross 10B by May 6 at latest. Once fully subscription-priced, FSD revenue offsets the decline in regulatory credits ($380M last quarter, same as credits). Long-term: 30-40-50% automotive profit margins plausible as factory utilization tightens and FSD attaches. CERN Basher: 'this is the year when everything is going to be finished — Optimus, Semi, robo-taxi, FSD.'
Key Arguments
- FSD fleetwide take rate ~14% (reversing long downtrend); ~30% US/Canada
- Incremental FSD take rate on Q1 deliveries ~50% (likely 30% run-rate post-US-stop-selling distortion)
- Daily FSD miles per subscriber 19 vs 11 a year ago
- Cumulative FSD miles: 9.7B — expected to cross 10B by May 6, possibly late-April
- FSD subscription revenue crossing regulatory credit revenue at ~$380M/quarter
- $44B cash vs $25B 2026 CAPEX — well-funded investment cycle
- First-production Cyber Cab imaged at Giga Texas, material difference from engineering prototypes
- Cyber cab + Semi at 10k each by YE would be 'needle-mover' ($400M FCF from Semis at $300k ASP alone)
Hedges & Caveats
- Regulatory credit revenue down from $900M to $380M — offset expected from FSD revenue ramp
- FSD V15 timing (early 2027) may delay robo-taxi scaling vs V14.3 capability