What the Heck Happened to SpaceX
Overall Thesis
SpaceX's data center business is significantly underestimated by the market, with potential for a $100+ billion revenue run rate by year-end and $300 billion by next year, driving substantial profitability that could exceed Tesla's quarterly profits.
Narratives
The hosts note that Tesla's stock has been comparatively stagnant while speculation about SpaceX has been heating up, with no clear directional call made on Tesla shares themselves. They also discuss robotaxi rollout progress (V15 software) and a possible future Tesla-SpaceX merger, but frame the merger timeline as a corporate/legal matter rather than a stock price prediction.
Key Arguments
- Tesla stock is described as 'hanging in there' and 'not doing well' relative to SpaceX enthusiasm
- Cybercab rollout in Austin didn't 'flood' the market, implying wait times remain manageable and V15 capability rollout is still partial
- Speculation that a Tesla-SpaceX merger could occur roughly a year from now, though legal/international complexities could push it out several years
The hosts note that memory stocks, including Micron, performed well on the day discussed, attributing it to a broader data-center and AI-related rebound after weakness earlier in the week. No specific price target or forward-looking directional call is made on Micron itself.
Key Arguments
- Memory stocks like Micron rallied as part of a data-center sector bounce back from weekend AI 'doomerism' weakness
Hedges & Caveats
- Acknowledges that not all data center capacity will come online magically by year-end
- Notes that Wall Street prefers to wait for actual results before validating projections
- Starship development timeline uncertain but deemed not critical to near-term thesis
- Projections are forward-looking and based on announced deals and capacity assumptions