Lucid Gives Gravity Update │ Quiet Day for Lucid Shorts ⚠️ Lucid Stock Analysis May 1, 2024
Overall Thesis
Lucid closed up 2.75% on Powell's rate cut hints but the speaker was disappointed the 'road to gravity' teaser was a factory tour video rather than reservation opening news, and hopes Lucid announces a definitive reservation date by earnings.
Narratives
Lucid benefited from Powell's hint at one or two rate cuts in second half of 2024, closing up 2.75%. However, the anticipated 'road to gravity' teaser was just an AMP-1 factory tour — no reservation date was announced, which disappointed the speaker. Short utilization is at 100% with only 15K shares left to borrow, and the speaker expects Lucid to open Gravity reservations or give a definitive date by Q1 earnings or face investor frustration. The options flow is notably bearish (77% bearish) — the most bearish reading seen in recent videos.
Key Arguments
- Powell hinting at 1-2 rate cuts in H2 2024 is a meaningful macro tailwind for EV stocks
- Short utilization at 100% with only 15K shares available to borrow — squeeze conditions intact
- Peter Rawlinson confirmed Gravity production still on track for 2024 in the factory video
- Gravity reservation date by Q1 earnings would be critical catalyst