Is Elon F**king SERIOUS?
Overall Thesis
Elon Musk's announcement of SpaceX reaching $3.5 trillion in annual revenues by 2033 represents an ambitious but achievable vision enabled by Starbase Louisiana's infrastructure and workforce capabilities.
Narratives
The host discusses Elon Musk's projection that SpaceX could reach roughly $3.5 trillion in annual revenue by 2033, driven by the new Starbase Louisiana spaceport enabling over 30 Starship launches per day. The host's own 20-year valuation model places this milestone later than Musk's guess (base case 2041, bull case 2034), but frames the overall trajectory as credible given AI compute and Starlink contributions.
Key Arguments
- Starbase Louisiana will have over a dozen launch towers enabling more than 30 Starship flights per day, making it the biggest launch site on Earth.
- Musk's best guess for SpaceX hitting $3.5 trillion in annual revenue is 2033.
- The host's own valuation model shows a bull case of 2034 for $3.5T revenue and a base case of 2041.
- AI compute and Starlink are described as very significant contributors to future SpaceX revenue.
Tesla is referenced only in connection with the host's broader '20-year SpaceX and Tesla valuation model,' which he uses to model long-term growth scenarios alongside SpaceX. No specific Tesla stock price targets, timeframes, or standalone Tesla arguments are made in this transcript.
Key Arguments
- The host maintains a combined 20-year valuation model for both SpaceX and Tesla, implying a long-term bullish view on Tesla as part of his broader thesis.
Hedges & Caveats
- Prediction is Elon Musk's 'best guess' rather than a guaranteed forecast
- Requires successful execution of thousands of annual Starship launches
- Dependent on regulatory approval and operational scaling
- Long-term projection (11+ years) subject to market and technological uncertainties
- SpaceX is private company; valuation projections are speculative