85% of our Assets are in THIS.
Overall Thesis
Kevin is allocating 80% of his ~$100M in assets to direct real estate, betting on a real estate boom after an anticipated stock/AI market downturn, while positioning for practical AI applications in mortgages, real estate, and healthcare.
Narratives
Kevin views Merck as a beneficiary of 'practical AI' in healthcare, citing its partnership with a therapeutics company on an AI-driven cancer treatment that reached phase three trials. He frames this as part of a broader thesis that practical AI applications (as opposed to AI infrastructure) will be the next big investment theme.
Key Arguments
- Merck's cancer therapeutic, developed with AI-based mutation mapping, was one of the first such treatments to reach phase three trials.
- AI has compressed what used to take scientists two months into a few hours, enabling faster vaccine/therapeutic development.
- Healthcare 'practical AI' (P AI) is one of three sectors Kevin believes will take off after the next market cycle downturn.
Kevin references a company (likely Moderna) with an AI-driven cancer therapeutic partnered with Merck, framing it as an example of practical AI in healthcare that he believes represents a coming investment opportunity. No specific stock price or trading prediction was made about this company.
Key Arguments
- The company's cancer therapeutic uses AI-based mutation mapping in partnership with Merck.
- AI has sped up vaccine/therapeutic development timelines dramatically, which Kevin sees as a scalable, high-impact application of AI in healthcare.
Kevin mentions Bitcoin only as an analogy for asymmetric-bet portfolio allocation, explicitly stating he currently holds no crypto exposure in his company's portfolio.
Key Arguments
- He compares a small equity allocation to how investors might allocate a small percentage of a portfolio to Bitcoin for asymmetric upside.
- He explicitly states there is no crypto exposure in his company's current asset allocation.
Hedges & Caveats
- Acknowledges anticipated cyclical downturn in stocks and AI spending
- Recommends fact-checking AI outputs rather than relying solely on algorithms
- Positions real estate allocation as a contrarian bet against near-term stock weakness
- Notes that real estate boom is contingent on a future market crisis occurring