Is Tesla SECRETLY Preparing Flying Cars?
Overall Thesis
Bhakdi predicts the upcoming Tesla Roadster will be a flying car (95% confidence) with a 50% chance it kicks off Tesla's serious flying car business. He argues flying cars are inherently superior to terrestrial cars, batteries have crossed the 400 Wh/kg threshold Elon identified as the feasibility point, and Tesla will scale to millions of flying cars by 2035-2040. If Tesla misses this market, it loses its entire robotaxi business.
Narratives
Tesla will reveal a flying Roadster within the next four months (95% probability) and there's a 50% chance it kicks off mass flying-car development with timeline to mass deployment by 2035-2040. Flying cars are inherently superior to terrestrial cars, battery density crossed Elon's 400 Wh/kg feasibility threshold (Amprius at 450 Wh/kg), and if Tesla doesn't do this, it loses its entire robotaxi franchise. Huge additional upside narrative.
Key Arguments
- Elon confirmed on Joe Rogan that Roadster will fly and reveal is coming in next few months
- Elon said electric jets become feasible at 400 Wh/kg battery density
- Amprius Psycho battery today delivers 450 Wh/kg at industrial scale
- Chinese company XPeng already has working prototype flying cars in Dubai
- Flying cars inherently superior: no roads, 100 mph straight lines, saves trillions in infrastructure
- Tesla would lose entire robotaxi business if it misses flying cars
- With 160 kWh battery, 1800 kg flying car can have 10-min flight + 100 km range today
- Year 3 production 10-20k high-end flying Roadsters, year 7 100k units, year 10-12 millions