Why I am LOADING UP On Tesla Stock
Overall Thesis
Tesla is undervalued after recent market sell-offs and represents a good risk-reward opportunity as the market enters the next leg of a rally driven by AI momentum.
Narratives
The host mentions he took a Micron trade that didn't perform well during the recent sell-off, describing it as roughly breakeven with no real alpha generated.
Key Arguments
- Trade broke roughly even amid the market-wide sell-off
The host cites Amazon's strong AWS-driven earnings beat and 15% stock pop as further confirmation the AI/hyperscaler trade is back, referencing another trader's successful bet on the stock. No explicit Amazon price target is given.
Key Arguments
- AWS numbers were 'absolutely stunning'
- Stock jumped 15% on earnings
- Seen as one of the two most important hyperscalers alongside Microsoft
After a brutal sell-off tied to forced liquidations and Fed-day panic, the host says he is going back to a full core Tesla position because he believes the broader market is bottoming and Tesla will ride the recovery. He acknowledges robotaxi deployment will likely be delayed a few months but says that does not change his high conviction on the stock.
Key Arguments
- Tesla's drop mirrored the broader market sell-off (Google also fell 7% on earnings) rather than being Tesla-specific
- Amazon and Microsoft blew out earnings, green-lighting the AI/hyperscaler trade which should lift Tesla too
- Tesla doesn't need any company-specific catalyst to recover, just the market regaining footing
- Robotaxi deployment will likely be delayed three to six months versus his original 15,000-by-year-end estimate, making him tactically less bullish short term
Predictions (1)
The host highlights Microsoft's blowout earnings as a sign the AI hyperscaler trade is fully back in swing, which he sees as a tailwind for the broader market and, by extension, Tesla. He gives no specific price target for Microsoft itself.
Key Arguments
- Microsoft posted 'absolutely stunning numbers' and the stock is up sharply
- Green light from Microsoft (with Amazon) signals AI trade is back on
The host uses Google's 7% earnings-day drop, in parallel with Tesla's decline, to argue Tesla's sell-off was market-wide rather than company-specific, noting Google recovered faster than Tesla.
Key Arguments
- Google fell 7% alongside Tesla after earnings, showing broad market weakness
- Google recovered quicker than Tesla afterward
The host argues the Nasdaq's roughly 3.44% month-to-date decline is modest given the severity of the sell-off narrative, and he believes the market is now positioned to resume its rally driven by strong AI-related earnings.
Key Arguments
- Nasdaq only down 3.44% month-to-date despite what felt like a horrific July
- Strong hyperscaler earnings (Microsoft, Amazon) support resuming the next leg of the AI-driven rally
Hedges & Caveats
- Acknowledges Tesla could go lower from current levels
- Notes Tesla is underperforming the market currently
- Mentions robotaxi delays and reduced investor optimism on that front
- References recent market volatility and forced selling events
- Admits to being 'creamed' on Micron position
- Maintains only a 'small core position' rather than full allocation