Shocking Reveals Propel SpaceX Stock toward $150
Overall Thesis
SpaceX stock has demonstrated resilience following recent lockup expiration and is positioned to move toward $150 based on strong operational fundamentals across its business segments.
Narratives
Randy and Brian discuss SpaceX's sharp stock rally following the post-IPO lockup expiration, framing it as evidence of resilience and strong demand across Starlink, Starship, X, and compute businesses. They note institutional buying (e.g., BlackRock, Kathy Wood) is driving the move, while acknowledging real uncertainty about whether today's valuation is justified by future execution.
Key Arguments
- Stock held up well and even rose despite lockup expiration fears of a crash
- Reasonable demand exists across every SpaceX/X business segment: Starlink, X platform, compute, and launches
- Institutions are buying aggressively rather than manipulating the price down
- Starship certification may be near, adding a potential catalyst
Randy argues that institutional investors are buying Tesla shares as retail ownership has fallen from roughly 40% to 20%, viewing this as smart money recognizing value rather than manipulation. He also floats his own belief that Tesla could reach roughly a trillion dollars in revenue by 2030, alongside extensive discussion of a hypothetical Tesla-SpaceX merger of equals and its valuation mechanics.
Key Arguments
- Retail ownership has dropped from ~40% to ~20% while institutions have been buying the dip around $298
- Institutions cannot and are not manipulating the stock price; recent Cybertruck coverage didn't move shares, showing limited external influence
- Kathy Wood and BlackRock have reportedly been increasing their stakes, which Randy views as a bullish signal
- Randy personally estimates Tesla could generate about a trillion dollars in revenue by 2030, similar to his estimate for SpaceX
Predictions (1)
Hedges & Caveats
- Uncertainty around whether current valuation justifies future performance
- Long-term timeline for profitability realization is unclear
- Increasing competition from Amazon Kuiper and other players
- Host acknowledges inability to predict short-term price movements
- Past prediction accuracy ('I did say on Friday...135 was in sight and 150 is next') does not guarantee future results
- Host expresses uncertainty about reaching $150 ('I don't know')
- Valuation concerns: 'the question isn't will it perform, the question is over what timeline will it perform'