URGENT SPACEX 🚨SHARE UNLOCK NEWS ‼️ Don't Say I Didn't Tell You THIS!
Overall SentimentMixedStrength: 60%
Overall Thesis
SpaceX faces two critical catalysts in August (earnings on the 4th and share unlock on the 6th) that could trigger a short squeeze, but the massive unlock of 911 million shares poses significant downside risk despite potential near-term upside.
Narratives
SPCXSpaceX
MixedStock Moe frames SPCX as caught between a potential short squeeze and a looming supply flood from the August 6 share unlock. He is bullish on the underlying business execution (Starship, Starlink) but cautious on near-term price action due to dilution risk, cash burn, and falling Starlink revenue per user.
Key Arguments
- 25.84% of the tiny 639 million share float is sold short and rising, which is squeeze fuel
- The August 6 unlock frees 911 million shares, a huge new supply overhang
- Revenue grew 33% to $19.3 billion but the company still posted a $9.4 billion net loss and trades at a rich 188x forward P/E
- Starlink revenue per user has fallen for four straight periods (99 to 81 to 66) even as subscribers grow
- AI/Grok compute buildout took 76% of Q1 capital spending and is the biggest source of losses
- He speculates SpaceX could eventually merge with Tesla, possibly starting the process in 2027
Hedges & Caveats
- Acknowledges uncertainty about whether unlocked shares will actually be sold
- Notes that share unlock extends through June 2027, not just August 6th
- Admits difficulty in predicting price direction after unlock
- Recognizes that retail investors would likely short on any spark
- Discloses personal trading history (sold IPO at $135-$200, profited on downside)
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