Tesla And SpaceX Are Suddenly On Fire!
Overall Thesis
Tesla and SpaceX are experiencing accelerated product launches and announcements (Semi rollout, Roadster unveil, Starship launch, FSD v15) with potential merger implications that could drive significant long-term value.
Narratives
The panel is highly enthusiastic about the cluster of Tesla catalysts happening in a short window: the Cyber Cab launch, the upcoming Semi rollout, the October 1st Roadster unveil, Optimus production rumors, the Terrafab chip facility, and continuing FSD v15 progress toward robotaxi scaling. They see the stock as consolidating and awaiting a 'breakout' catalyst tied to delivery numbers or robotaxi scale, and several hosts believe a Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement is likely within the next few months.
Key Arguments
- Unsupervised FSD paid miles grew 130% from August to September and are compounding ~17% week-over-week
- FSD v15 is described by Ashok as 'ridiculously safe' and expected to resolve remaining looping/convenience issues
- Terrafab chip facility is seen as a major long-term strategic asset providing supply chain independence from Taiwan/South Korea
- Multiple simultaneous product catalysts (Semi, Roadster, Optimus rumors, Cyber Cab) are viewed as unusually dense for one period
- A potential Tesla-SpaceX merger is viewed by some panelists as imminent, which could be a catalyst
The panel highlights SpaceX's rapidly growing AI compute business, including newly signed multi-billion dollar hosting deals, alongside major Starship logistics and reusability improvements. They note the stock has shown some price stability over the past month following its June IPO, and see multiple economic incentives (fuel cost savings, Starlink capacity gains) supporting the business long-term.
Key Arguments
- SpaceX signed another AI compute deal reportedly worth $1.1 billion per month ($13.3 billion annualized) starting December 1st, per the CFO
- Company is on track for '100 billion dollars of ARR by December' according to comments cited in the discussion
- Starship reusability improvements (tile recovery from Starship 13) reportedly gave a 3-month head start on fixing issues
- One Starship launch of 60 V3 Starlink satellites could add roughly 10% capacity to the Starlink network
- Building an on-site liquid oxygen/methane plant could cut launch fuel costs by roughly 90% compared to trucking it in
- SpaceX stock has been in a roughly 5% range over the last 30 days, suggesting emerging price stability post-IPO
Hedges & Caveats
- Merger timing and approval uncertain; must occur before October 15 for inclusion in 2024 shareholder meeting
- Kathy Wood's $10 trillion by 2030 projection is speculative and based on optimistic Starship launch frequency assumptions
- Product timelines subject to delays (historical pattern with Tesla)
- SpaceX is private; SPCX ticker represents a private equity vehicle, not direct SpaceX ownership
- Hosts are self-identified bulls with potential confirmation bias