XRP JUST LOST $1 🚨 And SpaceX Did the Exact Opposite
Overall Thesis
XRP has fallen to a 21-month low and the creator is bullish up to a certain price, while SpaceX has rallied 33% but the creator maintains a bearish long-term outlook with expectations of further declines by December after a dead cat bounce.
Narratives
Stock Moe sees XRP as oversold after losing the $1 level, with whale accumulation and a low exchange supply supporting a possible short-term bounce, but he warns that lack of catalysts (Clarity Act delay, falling ETF demand) means the dollar level is now resistance and further downside is likely. He is bullish for a short rebound this week but expects another move lower after that.
Key Arguments
- XRP fell to a 21-month low and broke below $1, triggering stop-loss cascades
- Whales added about 380 million XRP into the break, and exchange supply is near a 7-year low
- Active addresses hit a two-month high even as price made new lows
- ETF demand has collapsed 96% from its first month, and no major catalyst exists until the September 15th Clarity Act vote
Stock Moe discusses SpaceX's 33% run off its August low as a short squeeze fueled by an unlock event that saw no follow-through selling, and says he has taken a large short position expecting the rally to fade near resistance around $146.86-$154 before retesting lower levels. He frames Morgan Stanley's $300 base/$600 bull case as an external analyst view rather than his own price target.
Key Arguments
- SpaceX rallied ~33% off its August 6th low near $104 after an anticipated unlock produced no selling wave, triggering a short squeeze
- The company is acquiring Kustomer for $60 billion in an all-stock deal expected to close end of August
- Q2 revenue grew 92% to $7.8 billion, but the company spent $15.8 billion in one quarter on AI infrastructure while another segment lost $1.26 billion
- Speaker moved into a large short position on Friday, expecting a 'dead cat bounce' pattern of decline, partial recovery, then renewed downside into December
Hedges & Caveats
- Creator states predictions are conditional ('up to a certain price' for XRP)
- Acknowledges short-term volatility and dead cat bounces before longer-term moves
- Notes uncertainty about whether selling will continue ('we'll wait and see')
- Mentions putting personal money at risk ('I'm putting my money up there')
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