Tesla Stock $1000; S & P $8300; Tarafab $119 B
Overall Thesis
Randy Kirk and guest Brian Wong frame a bullish setup for Tesla and the broader market: Tesla holding above $393 with a path toward $1,000 conditional on robotaxi scaling and FSD-driven sales, and the S&P potentially reaching $8,300-$8,400 by year-end on AI-led earnings growth, SpaceX/Anthropic IPOs, and a possible Iran peace deal. They also cover Tesla's $119B Terafab plan, Starlink capacity expansion, and the OpenAI vs. Elon Musk lawsuit.
Narratives
Tesla is holding above $393 and pushing against $400 with technical strength. The bull case to $1,000 hinges on robotaxi scaling and FSD-driven car sales materializing, which would also lift the stock through the all-time-high zone above $437.
Key Arguments
- Tesla held above $393 and is positioned to break $400 if the Iran peace deal closes
- Unsupervised robotaxi count in Texas at 38 with a path to 300+ by month-end
- Anthropic deal to rent 300 MW of Colossus is worth $4-8B/year and brings xAI near break-even
- Tesla Semi orders surging (1,000+ in California, plus Watt EZ and DHL), with diesel scarcity as a tailwind
Predictions (1)
S&P could reach $8,300-$8,400 by year-end on AI-driven earnings growth (Q1 tracking ~27% vs. 12% expected), SpaceX and Anthropic IPOs adding trillions to indexes, and an improving macro backdrop. The off-year in 2025 (~15% return) sets up a return to 20%+ in 2026.
Key Arguments
- Q1 S&P earnings tracking 27% vs. original 12% estimate
- SpaceX IPO at $2-3T plus Anthropic IPO add substantial weight to indexes
- FactSet raised Q1 earnings estimate; full-year now tracking above 20%
- AI productivity should drive multi-quarter earnings beats