TSLABearexpired
Mark SpiegelTarget Price
$20
“fundamentally this stock is worth less than twenty dollars a share and by the way at fifteen dollars at twenty dollars a share it would still have a 60 something billion dollar market cap which is probably absurd”@ 117:18 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BearishTesla is transitioning from a growth stock to just another car company facing massive margin compression from price cuts and increasing competition. The company will likely see 2023 earnings decline 30%+ from 2022 levels due to 12-15% average price cuts while production only increases 3-5%, eliminating any operating leverage benefits.
Key arguments
- Price cuts of 12-15% on average will directly impact gross margins from ~25% to potentially 13% or lower
- Production guidance of 1.8M units represents only 3-5% growth over Q4 annualized rate, providing no meaningful economies of scale
- Competition from Korean EVs (Kia EV6, Hyundai Ioniq 5), Ford Mach-E, and BMW i4 is intensifying with better build quality
- China factory profits at risk due to market saturation and local competition from NIO, XPeng, BYD
- FSD is a liability that may face regulatory recall, potentially costing billions in refunds
- Used Tesla prices down 20% while overall used car market only down 4-5%
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- IRA tax credits could provide some margin support
- Demand surge from price cuts shows price elasticity exists
- New factories in Austin and Berlin could eventually provide scale benefits
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Mark Spiegel maintains long-standing negative views on the market
- Discussion acknowledges this could be a temporary dislocation or disconnect
- Historical comparison to 2001 NASDAQ rally followed by continued decline used as cautionary example
- Hosts note they invited Tesla bulls but they couldn't attend, indicating incomplete perspective
The call
- Date said
- Jan 28, 2023
- Price at prediction
- $177.90
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- expired
- Resolution price
- $400.62
- Return
- -125.2%
- Notes
- Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $400.62.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $400.62.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Strong conviction based on detailed fundamental analysis and comparison to auto industry multiples