SPYBearhit
Mark SpiegelTarget Price
$2,600
“if you look at uh Gap earnings for the quarter that's just getting reported uh Q4 and you annualize them and you put a 16 multiple on them which is pretty freaking reasonable for uh you know five percent rate declining earnings Market which environment which we're in that puts the s p like in the 2600s”@ 51:10 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BearishMark Spiegel expects the S&P 500 to crash by more than 30% in the next 12-18 months as the recession worsens. He believes the recent rally is just a bear market rally that will fail, driven by temporary liquidity from debt ceiling issues and oversold conditions.
Key arguments
- Biggest asset bubble in history built on decade of zero rates and QE now being reversed
- Fed raising rates to 5% with QT of $90B/month while ECB will also do QT
- Hot economic data (CPI, retail sales, PPI) means Fed will stay higher for longer
- S&P trading at high multiples on declining earnings in 5% rate environment
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Bear market rallies are normal and can be substantial (40-50% in past cycles)
- Temporary liquidity from debt ceiling and Japan QE provided fuel for recent rally
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Spiegel acknowledges uncertainty about the exact composition of the rally (short squeeze vs. underinvestment)
- Historical precedent cited: NASDAQ had multiple rallies of 30-50% during the 2000 tech bubble collapse, suggesting current rally is not unusual
- Spiegel's fund is positioned short (Tesla and SPY), creating potential bias in bearish outlook
- Interview recorded February 16, 2023 - predictions are time-sensitive
The call
- Date said
- Feb 17, 2023
- Timeframe
- next year to 18 months
- Deadline
- Aug 17, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $408.28
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- hit
- Resolution price
- $407.26
- Return
- +0.3%
- Notes
- Target ≤$2600 reached on 2023-02-17. Price: $407.26. Return: +0.2%.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Target ≤$2600 reached on 2023-02-17. Price: $407.26. Return: +0.2%.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Very specific target based on earnings analysis, strong conviction language, large short position