TSLABullunverifiable
Jo Bhakdi“I think we can assume that by the end of the year we have solved the problem”@ 12:08 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishTesla's three segments (EV/energy $3T TAM, FSD $15T TAM, humanoid robots $30T TAM) position it for a $50 trillion combined market cap. Tesla will be an AI stock rerated alongside Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Google, OpenAI, Anthropic. FSD will be solved by end of 2024, Cyber Cab will launch Aug 8 unveil with regulatory approval in Florida/LA/SF/China, Optimus will have commercial launch in 2025.
Key arguments
- EV inflection point by 2026: sub-$30K Tesla dips below ICE vehicle price triggering massive adoption
- FSD 12's end-to-end neural nets solve self-driving by end of 2024
- Legacy OEMs will license Tesla FSD, drivetrains, and batteries, creating new revenue streams
- Robotaxi regulatory approval likely in Florida, LA/SF, China by 2025 covering ~100M people
- Cyber Cab design language will be a billion-dollar marketing coup
- Optimus commercial launch in 2025, cash-positive by 2026
- Only competition is other Pioneer-led companies: Nvidia, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic
- August 8 robotaxi unveil, June 13 shareholder meeting, Q2 earnings July 17 are key near-term catalysts
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Some believe FSD will take forever, analysts extrapolate from prior 10 years
- Some worry about liability/regulatory risk of robotaxis and home robots
- Cyber Truck design may hurt truck demand but helps Cyber Cab
The call
- Date said
- May 14, 2024
- Timeframe
- by end of 2024
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2024
- Price at prediction
- $171.89
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- unverifiable
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker says 'pretty safe to say'