The KEY CATALYSTS for Tesla stock 2024+ (What & WHEN!)- Part 2/3
Overall Thesis
Bhakdi lays out Tesla's 2024+ catalysts across EV, FSD, and Optimus segments. He predicts FSD breakthroughs by end of 2024, robotaxi cities launching in 2025, Cyber Cab at $99/month deployment, Optimus commercial launch in 2025, and an EV inflection point by 2026 as sub-$30K Tesla prices dip below ICE vehicles. Total market cap opportunity estimated at $50 trillion.
Narratives
Tesla's three segments (EV/energy $3T TAM, FSD $15T TAM, humanoid robots $30T TAM) position it for a $50 trillion combined market cap. Tesla will be an AI stock rerated alongside Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Google, OpenAI, Anthropic. FSD will be solved by end of 2024, Cyber Cab will launch Aug 8 unveil with regulatory approval in Florida/LA/SF/China, Optimus will have commercial launch in 2025.
Key Arguments
- EV inflection point by 2026: sub-$30K Tesla dips below ICE vehicle price triggering massive adoption
- FSD 12's end-to-end neural nets solve self-driving by end of 2024
- Legacy OEMs will license Tesla FSD, drivetrains, and batteries, creating new revenue streams
- Robotaxi regulatory approval likely in Florida, LA/SF, China by 2025 covering ~100M people
- Cyber Cab design language will be a billion-dollar marketing coup
- Optimus commercial launch in 2025, cash-positive by 2026
- Only competition is other Pioneer-led companies: Nvidia, Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic
- August 8 robotaxi unveil, June 13 shareholder meeting, Q2 earnings July 17 are key near-term catalysts