TSLABearexpired
Mark SpiegelTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$13.33
Said $40· today's shares after the 5-for-1 (Aug 2020) and 3-for-1 (Aug 2022) splits
“20 times two dollars would make it a 40 stock right it's now 707 right so what is that you know there's there's probably 95 downside or something in this stock before it gets a very generous valuation”@ 7:26 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BearishTesla is massively overvalued at a $700 billion market cap, trading at approximately 35 times the valuation per car sold compared to Volkswagen Group. The company will struggle once other automakers flood the EV market, as Tesla won't be able to subsidize EV losses with profitable ICE vehicles like traditional automakers can.
Key arguments
- Tesla trades at ~5x VW Group's market cap despite VW building similar EV volumes by next year plus 9-10 million profitable ICE vehicles
- Revenue streams like emission credit sales (~$300M in Q2) will disappear when other automakers have enough EVs
- Sequential sales growth is minimal - only 16,000 more cars from Q2 to Q3, which is a rounding error for large automakers
- Elon Musk's pattern of lying and securities fraud creates additional short thesis support
- Full self-driving capability that has been sold for 5 years at $7,000-$10,000 still doesn't work properly
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Tesla operates in a 'fact-free zone' with complete regulatory immunity
- Stock remains disconnected from fundamental reality despite negative news
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Mark Spiegel has been short Tesla since 2014, indicating a long-standing bearish position that has been a 'pain trade'
- Past performance is not an indicator of future results (stated in video description)
- Spiegel acknowledges he did not anticipate Tesla's ability to operate in a 'fact free zone' and maintain regulatory immunity
- The short thesis has underperformed significantly, with Tesla stock rising despite bearish calls
The call
- Date said
- Aug 25, 2021
- Price at prediction
- $237.07
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- expired
- Resolution price
- $400.62
- Return
- -69.0%
- Notes
- Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $400.62.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $400.62.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Detailed fundamental analysis with specific valuation methodology and strong conviction language