TSLABullpending
Jo BhakdiTarget Price
$490
“Do I have high midterm confidence we go to 490 this year? Yes, I absolutely do.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishThe speaker reduced Tesla holdings tactically before disappointing July 2026 earnings, correctly avoided the crash to $300, and has now re-entered fully around $325-$340. He remains extremely bullish long-term, arguing the stock is undervalued relative to progress in energy, automotive, Optimus and Cybercab, and expects a near-term recovery toward prior highs as institutional buyers accumulate shares.
Key arguments
- Institutional ownership rose roughly 20-25% (from about 1.8 million to 2.2 million shares), signaling smart money is accumulating despite poor retail sentiment.
- Tesla's core businesses (automotive, energy/megapack) are improving even though the stock is down from $490 to around $340.
- Cybercab production is ramping toward roughly 2,000 units per month, which the speaker sees as evidence of a real commercial plan despite slow deployment.
- Robotaxi/Cybercab represents a far larger scalable TAM long-term than SpaceX's terrestrial compute business, making Tesla's growth story more attractive.
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- The pace of FSD/robotaxi deployment has been slower than projected in December 2025, causing the stock to be re-rated down from about $490.
- He estimates only a 40-50% chance that 10,000 Cybercabs will be commercially deployed by year end, even though he is 90%+ confident 10,000 will exist 'in the wild.'
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Speaker acknowledges short-term tactical bearishness despite long-term bullishness
- Past performance cited (2019 Tesla call) does not guarantee future results
- Market conditions were described as 'shaky' during earnings period
- Speaker maintains diversified portfolio across multiple tech stocks rather than concentrated bet
The call
- Date said
- Aug 16, 2026
- Timeframe
- this year
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Current price (live)
- $378.90$111.10 below target
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker uses strong certainty language ('absolutely do') with a specific price and timeframe.
Source
Why I am BULLISH on Tesla Stock Again
Said on Aug 16, 2026Open on YouTube ↗