MSFTBullpending
Tom NashTarget Price
$924
“Microsoft by 2030 is going to make $250 billion in net profit... Microsoft is a $924 per share... we have 142% upside baked into Microsoft as we stand today.”
Thesis at the time
Strongly BullishNash views Microsoft's 31% drop from highs as a major buying opportunity, citing a $600 billion contracted backlog (up 97%) and consistently improving margins and profits despite lagging the S&P 500. He projects Microsoft will reach $924 per share by 2030, a 142% upside from current levels.
Key arguments
- Revenue doubled from $143B to $280B over five years and operating income grew from $52.9B to $128.5B
- Net income margin rose from 44% to 101% and EBITDA margin from 47% to 63% since 2020
- Microsoft has a backlog of over $600 billion, up 97%, with cloud growing 40% last quarter
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Microsoft has lagged the S&P 500 over the past five years and is down 25% over the past year
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- "Don't click nothing, does much, nothing, don't buy nothing" - disclaimer against following advice without personal research
- Upside projections are based on presenter's personal models, not guaranteed outcomes
- Strategy requires long-term commitment and emotional discipline
- Past performance and methodology do not guarantee future results
- Presenter acknowledges this is their personal investment style, not universal advice
The call
- Date said
- Jul 27, 2026
- Timeframe
- by 2030
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Current price (live)
- $498$426 below target
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Uses definitive certainty language ('is going to make') plus a specific price target and specific timeframe, with only minor hedging around growth assumptions.
Source
Dips Don’t Last: 3 Stocks I’m Buying
Said on Jul 27, 2026Open on YouTube ↗