Dips Don’t Last: 3 Stocks I’m Buying
Overall Thesis
Market dips present buying opportunities for fundamentally strong companies; three currently discounted stocks offer 77-144% upside potential based on the presenter's valuation models.
Narratives
Nash calls Amazon the 'largest landlord on the planet' with the biggest bull case of the three mega-caps he covers, citing accelerating growth, doubling/quadrupling financials over five years, and vertical integration into training chips. He projects 144% upside to $567 per share by 2030 based on his profit and multiple assumptions.
Key Arguments
- Revenue doubled from $380B to $720B and operating income more than tripled from $23B to nearly $80B over five years
- EBITDA margin doubled from 13% to 25% and net income quadrupled from $21B to $77B since 2020
- Amazon grew faster last quarter than in the past 15 quarters and has vertical integration with training chips
Predictions (1)
Nash views Microsoft's 31% drop from highs as a major buying opportunity, citing a $600 billion contracted backlog (up 97%) and consistently improving margins and profits despite lagging the S&P 500. He projects Microsoft will reach $924 per share by 2030, a 142% upside from current levels.
Key Arguments
- Revenue doubled from $143B to $280B over five years and operating income grew from $52.9B to $128.5B
- Net income margin rose from 44% to 101% and EBITDA margin from 47% to 63% since 2020
- Microsoft has a backlog of over $600 billion, up 97%, with cloud growing 40% last quarter
Predictions (1)
Tom Nash argues Google is a dominant 'landlord' of the AI industry via cloud infrastructure, and that its 22% drop from 52-week highs is a buying opportunity given accelerating cloud growth and margin expansion from in-house TPUs. He models an 80% upside to $560 per share by 2030 even using conservative growth assumptions.
Key Arguments
- Google is one of three 'landlords' (with Amazon and Microsoft) owning over 60% of the world's cloud infrastructure/land, collecting rent regardless of who wins the AI race
- Revenue, operating income, free cash flow, and EBITDA margins have all improved dramatically since 2020 while the stock price fell
- Google Cloud revenue is up 82% year-over-year with operating income up 215%, and cloud margins expanded from 20.6% to 35.6% because Google's TPUs reduce dependency on Nvidia GPUs
Predictions (1)
Hedges & Caveats
- "Don't click nothing, does much, nothing, don't buy nothing" - disclaimer against following advice without personal research
- Upside projections are based on presenter's personal models, not guaranteed outcomes
- Strategy requires long-term commitment and emotional discipline
- Past performance and methodology do not guarantee future results
- Presenter acknowledges this is their personal investment style, not universal advice