TSLABearexpired
Mark SpiegelTarget Price
$18
“if Tesla sold at six times earnings which it should because it's like any other freaking car maker and it earns three dollars this year that would be 18 a share”@ 31:25 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BearishSpiegel views Tesla as no longer a growth company but a commodity auto producer that slashed prices and profits in half. He expects Tesla to fall to low double digits as competition destroys margins and the growth story is completely busted.
Key arguments
- January price cuts of ~12% per car slice profits roughly in half
- Company will earn 25-35% less in 2023 than 2022 despite selling more units
- Legacy automakers can cross-subsidize EV losses with profitable ICE vehicles
- Superior competition from Hyundai/Kia EVs and other manufacturers
- Musk's behavior has damaged the brand
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Recent rally was driven by call option gamma, not fundamentals
- Stock was very oversold before the rally began
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Spiegel acknowledges uncertainty about the exact composition of the rally (short squeeze vs. underinvestment)
- Historical precedent cited: NASDAQ had multiple rallies of 30-50% during the 2000 tech bubble collapse, suggesting current rally is not unusual
- Spiegel's fund is positioned short (Tesla and SPY), creating potential bias in bearish outlook
- Interview recorded February 16, 2023 - predictions are time-sensitive
The call
- Date said
- Feb 17, 2023
- Price at prediction
- $202.04
- Confidence
- medium
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- expired
- Resolution price
- $400.62
- Return
- -98.3%
- Notes
- Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $400.62.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $400.62.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Conditional valuation based on earnings multiple comparison