Randy KirkTarget Price
$410
“I'm still at $410 for Monday”
Thesis at the time
BullishPost-earnings stock recovery underway. Host sticks with $410 Monday target. Analyst reactions generally positive ('pundits loved the call'). Baird cut its PT from $538 to $522 but maintained outperform. FSD 14.3.2 released overnight with stunning reports. The three reasons for yesterday's selloff — more-serious Elon, raised capex, negative-cash-flow talk — don't change the long-term monetization thesis. Robotaxi + Optimus ramp dates are 'pretty irrelevant' if the products eventually arrive and scale.
Key arguments
- Host's Monday target: $410
- Baird PT cut $538 → $522 but kept outperform rating
- FSD 14.3.2 released overnight with strong initial reports
- Yesterday's -4% reaction driven by three vibes items (tone, capex, cash flow), not fundamentals
- Long-term: product rampdates less important than the eventual scale of robotaxi + Optimus
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Baird trimmed — analyst community mixed
- Monday reaction depends on weekend news flow
- Serious-Elon tone unsettled short-term-focused holders
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Baird trimmed target $538 → $522 but held outperform
- Wall Street reaction still digesting; Monday's price depends on weekend news
The call
- Date said
- Apr 23, 2026
- Timeframe
- Monday
- Deadline
- Apr 27, 2026
- Price at prediction
- $386.42
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $378.67
- Return
- -2.0%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $410. Price: $378.67.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 0% progress toward target $410. Price: $378.67.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Explicit forecast with specific price and specific date. 'I'm still at' implies consistency with a prior stated view — conviction stable through the -4% Friday. Short horizon makes it easy to falsify.