Tesla Stock Recovering with FSD 14.3.2 Out; Pundits Loved the Call
Overall Thesis
Tesla is recovering after yesterday's sell-off. Analyst reactions are more positive than the stock reaction suggests — though Baird cut its target from $538 to $522. Host still targeting $410 for Monday. FSD 14.3.2 was released overnight with stunning reports. The negative reaction yesterday was three things: more-serious Elon tone, capex raise, and the negative-cash-flow talk — none of which change the long-term picture.
Narratives
Post-earnings stock recovery underway. Host sticks with $410 Monday target. Analyst reactions generally positive ('pundits loved the call'). Baird cut its PT from $538 to $522 but maintained outperform. FSD 14.3.2 released overnight with stunning reports. The three reasons for yesterday's selloff — more-serious Elon, raised capex, negative-cash-flow talk — don't change the long-term monetization thesis. Robotaxi + Optimus ramp dates are 'pretty irrelevant' if the products eventually arrive and scale.
Key Arguments
- Host's Monday target: $410
- Baird PT cut $538 → $522 but kept outperform rating
- FSD 14.3.2 released overnight with strong initial reports
- Yesterday's -4% reaction driven by three vibes items (tone, capex, cash flow), not fundamentals
- Long-term: product rampdates less important than the eventual scale of robotaxi + Optimus
Predictions (1)
Hedges & Caveats
- Baird trimmed target $538 → $522 but held outperform
- Wall Street reaction still digesting; Monday's price depends on weekend news