TSLABearexpired
Mark SpiegelTarget Price
$17
“so you're looking at I don't know 17 a share maybe I mean that's what that's what the damn thing is generously worth because it's not really growing much anymore”@ 24:32 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BearishMark Spiegel views Tesla as absurdly overvalued at 70x earnings, arguing the company has trailing-edge technology, faces intense competition, and has had to slash prices significantly which will crush margins. He sees the stock as worth only $17-18 per share based on comparison to BMW's valuation.
Key arguments
- Trading at 70x earnings while traditional automakers trade at 2.5-6x earnings
- Technology now trailing-edge with competitors offering better charging, interiors, and range
- Massive price cuts destroying profit margins - making half as much profit per car
- Self-driving technology is 'garbage' and fraudulent marketing with fake demonstrations
- Losing market share globally to superior competitors
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Retail investor loyalty and cultural attachment could provide temporary support
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Speaker acknowledges uncertainty about long-term recovery timing
- Admits central banks may resume money printing at some point, which could drive asset prices up
- Notes this is a medium-term prediction, not a long-term forecast
- Acknowledges bear market will likely include rallies similar to recent 6.5-week bounce
- Recognizes stocks may not bounce back quickly even after decline
The call
- Date said
- Mar 1, 2023
- Price at prediction
- $202.77
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- expired
- Resolution price
- $400.62
- Return
- -97.6%
- Notes
- Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $400.62.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $400.62.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Detailed valuation analysis comparing to BMW, strong conviction with large short position