Lucid CityTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$30
Said $3· today's shares after the 1-for-10 reverse split (Sep 2025)
“Elliott wave technicals going into this upcoming week is rather optimistic so it does show based on this for it to hit between that 284 and $3 range”@ 9:20 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
MixedThe speaker previews Q1 earnings (Tuesday after hours) with focus on what truly matters: future guidance on Gravity ramp trajectory, tariff supply chain impact, and whether any licensing deals are close to announcement. Historical context shows Lucid's earnings have only been seen as positive twice (both Q2s). Key metrics (EPS -$0.23, revenue $247M) are secondary to forward guidance quality. Elliott Wave technicals target $2.84-$3 if $2.18 support holds. Shorts at 28.7% of float with 354M shares — higher than typical going into earnings.
Key arguments
- Market cares only about future guidance — Gravity ramp, tariff impact, licensing deals
- Historical earnings: only 2 of ~12 previous earnings seen as positive by market (both Q2)
- Implied move: 9.91% (~25 cents in either direction)
- Elliott Wave projects $2.84-$3 assuming $2.18 support holds
- Gravity needs to deliver ~9K units to complement ~11K Air to hit 20K target
- Analysts will hammer on tariff/supply chain, rare earth material sourcing, Nicola facility and midsize timeline
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Even if Lucid misses on EPS/revenue, good guidance could still push price higher
- EV sector is rate-sensitive; any rate cut signal would be broadly positive
The call
- Date said
- May 4, 2025
- Deadline
- May 9, 2025
- Price at prediction
- $23.60
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $25.10
- Return
- +6.4%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 23% progress toward target $30. Price: $25.10.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 23% progress toward target $30. Price: $25.10.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.