Lucid Q1 Earnings Preview 🚨 Key Metrics to Watch | 10% Move Implied!
Overall Thesis
Q1 earnings preview: the market will judge Lucid entirely on future guidance around Gravity ramp, tariff impact, and licensing deals — not on historical metrics — with a 10% implied move and Elliott Wave targeting $2.84-$3, but history suggests misses are more common than beats.
Narratives
The speaker previews Q1 earnings (Tuesday after hours) with focus on what truly matters: future guidance on Gravity ramp trajectory, tariff supply chain impact, and whether any licensing deals are close to announcement. Historical context shows Lucid's earnings have only been seen as positive twice (both Q2s). Key metrics (EPS -$0.23, revenue $247M) are secondary to forward guidance quality. Elliott Wave technicals target $2.84-$3 if $2.18 support holds. Shorts at 28.7% of float with 354M shares — higher than typical going into earnings.
Key Arguments
- Market cares only about future guidance — Gravity ramp, tariff impact, licensing deals
- Historical earnings: only 2 of ~12 previous earnings seen as positive by market (both Q2)
- Implied move: 9.91% (~25 cents in either direction)
- Elliott Wave projects $2.84-$3 assuming $2.18 support holds
- Gravity needs to deliver ~9K units to complement ~11K Air to hit 20K target
- Analysts will hammer on tariff/supply chain, rare earth material sourcing, Nicola facility and midsize timeline