GLDBearpending
Randy KirkTarget Price
$3,500
“I might be closer to 50/50 right now about gold getting all the way back to 3500.”
Thesis at the time
MixedRandy has an existing long-term expectation for gold to reach $3,500 but says his confidence in that target has weakened considerably, now viewing it closer to a coin-flip. He believes $4,000 is currently acting as a support floor for gold.
Key arguments
- Gold is currently trading around $4,442, well above the $4,000 level he sees as a floor
- He maintains a longstanding $3,500 expectation but with declining confidence
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Confidence in reaching $3,500 has fallen from ~80-90% to roughly 50/50
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Analyst acknowledges uncertainty about correction magnitude despite previous resistance level predictions
- Technical analysis based on 50% retracement levels described as psychological rather than guaranteed
- Forward earnings estimates are described as 'minimum' estimates with inherent uncertainty
- Analyst admits 'I'd be lying though if I said I thought that it would had a likely a high likelihood of correcting this much'
- Timeframe for breaking through resistance levels is uncertain ('maybe this time maybe the next time')
The call
- Date said
- Aug 14, 2026
- Current price (live)
- $400.07✓ target met
- Confidence
- low
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- pending
Confidence Reasoning
Speaker explicitly frames this as a coin-flip ('50/50'), a significant downgrade from earlier conviction, with no specific timeframe given.
Source
Why or Why TSLA & SPCX RED; High Praise for Grok 4.6
Said on Aug 14, 2026Open on YouTube ↗