Why or Why TSLA & SPCX RED; High Praise for Grok 4.6
Overall Thesis
Tesla and SpaceX are experiencing short-term sell-offs despite positive fundamental news, but the analyst believes both stocks are undervalued and will eventually break through key resistance levels.
Narratives
Randy believes Tesla's recent pullback was driven mainly by Robotaxi-related news and macro factors, and that the stock has now resumed an uptrend he had previously called. He sees continued Robotaxi expansion, FSD improvements, and new programs like the certified pre-owned initiative as bullish catalysts, with $350 as the next psychological round-number marker.
Key Arguments
- Tesla bottomed around 297 and has been 'dripping up again' as predicted after the Robotaxi-driven sell-off
- Elon Musk's comments about continued double-digit Robotaxi growth are driving investor optimism about compounding scale
- FSD 14.3.7 is reportedly performing well according to an owner (Zach)
- New certified pre-owned program with free FSD trial and Tesla-certified inspections could support demand
- Rumored redesigned Roadster unveiling with SpaceX-developed thrusters could be a positive catalyst
- Speculation of a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger could support Tesla's share price if SpaceX has to pay a premium
Randy is very bullish on SpaceX's fundamentals, citing the closed Cursor deal, praise for Grok 4.6, and expectations that Grok 4.7 will leverage SpaceX's engineering data to compete with leading AI models. He views the recent share price decline as disconnected from strong underlying news, partly attributing it to front-running of a scheduled share unlock next week.
Key Arguments
- Cursor deal with SpaceX/Grok finalized, generating strong industry praise for Grok 4.6
- Grok 4.7 is expected to incorporate 25 years of SpaceX engineering and science data, potentially putting it in the AI lead
- Potential for Grok/Cursor revenue to scale rapidly similar to Anthropic's growth trajectory
- Starlink dish factory expansion signals continued growth in that business line
- An upcoming share unlock next week may be causing front-running and short-term selling pressure, which could reverse once the unlock occurs
- Fundamentally the stock is described as 'hugely unsold, completely undervalued'
Randy has an existing long-term expectation for gold to reach $3,500 but says his confidence in that target has weakened considerably, now viewing it closer to a coin-flip. He believes $4,000 is currently acting as a support floor for gold.
Key Arguments
- Gold is currently trading around $4,442, well above the $4,000 level he sees as a floor
- He maintains a longstanding $3,500 expectation but with declining confidence
Predictions (1)
Hedges & Caveats
- Analyst acknowledges uncertainty about correction magnitude despite previous resistance level predictions
- Technical analysis based on 50% retracement levels described as psychological rather than guaranteed
- Forward earnings estimates are described as 'minimum' estimates with inherent uncertainty
- Analyst admits 'I'd be lying though if I said I thought that it would had a likely a high likelihood of correcting this much'
- Timeframe for breaking through resistance levels is uncertain ('maybe this time maybe the next time')