TSLA bullish call by HyperChange

TSLABullunverifiable

“I left almost like more bullish than ever in a lot of ways with a bunch of different takes on the earnings call.”

Thesis at the time

Strongly Bullish

The host says he left Tesla's Q2 earnings call more bullish than ever, arguing that beneath a seemingly flat headline robotaxi miles chart, unsupervised (driverless) miles are scaling exponentially, FSD subscriptions hit a record, and the company posted record overall revenue. He frames Tesla as an AI company whose robotaxi, Optimus, chips, and energy businesses are all inflecting at once, even though the stock itself has been range-bound.

Key arguments

Unsupervised robotaxi miles are growing about 10% week over week with 380,000 miles driven and zero notable accidents
FSD subscriptions hit a record 1.48 million with 200,000 net adds and a 55% attach rate on new North American car sales
Tesla reported record quarterly and trailing-four-quarter revenue (over $100 billion)
The robotaxi fleet is already running the V15 software stack, which bulls had expected to be a year away
Record CapEx ($5.6B in the quarter, $25B+ guided for the year) is being funded by core business cash flow without needing to raise capital

Counter-arguments acknowledged

The zero-accident robotaxi safety record 'isn't going to last forever'
Passing Waymo in unsupervised miles by November 'seems a bit too aggressive' as a timeline
The stock is 'valued highly' and 'going to be extremely volatertile'

Hedges and caveats (from the video)

Analysis based on interpretation of conference call commentary rather than official guidance
Robo-taxi scaling projections depend on regulatory approval and deployment execution
Current chart data shows sequential decline in total robotaxi miles quarter-over-quarter
Unsupervised miles growth claims are based on management commentary without independently verified data