Tesla Q2 26 Earnings: More Bullish Than Ever
Overall Thesis
Tesla's Q2 2026 earnings reveal exponential growth in unsupervised robotaxi miles that is masked by declining supervised miles, positioning the company for a significant boom in the robo-taxi business starting next quarter.
Narratives
The host says he left Tesla's Q2 earnings call more bullish than ever, arguing that beneath a seemingly flat headline robotaxi miles chart, unsupervised (driverless) miles are scaling exponentially, FSD subscriptions hit a record, and the company posted record overall revenue. He frames Tesla as an AI company whose robotaxi, Optimus, chips, and energy businesses are all inflecting at once, even though the stock itself has been range-bound.
Key Arguments
- Unsupervised robotaxi miles are growing about 10% week over week with 380,000 miles driven and zero notable accidents
- FSD subscriptions hit a record 1.48 million with 200,000 net adds and a 55% attach rate on new North American car sales
- Tesla reported record quarterly and trailing-four-quarter revenue (over $100 billion)
- The robotaxi fleet is already running the V15 software stack, which bulls had expected to be a year away
- Record CapEx ($5.6B in the quarter, $25B+ guided for the year) is being funded by core business cash flow without needing to raise capital
The host speculates that Tesla and SpaceX are being set up for an eventual merger, pointing to comments from Elon Musk and Tesla's legal team about a 'deepened partnership' and a planned Terafab announcement as potential catalysts. He is personally torn on whether a merger would be good for Tesla shareholders, noting the dilution risk versus long-term synergy upside.
Key Arguments
- Tesla's legal team emphasized a 'deepened partnership' with SpaceX including an equity investment last year
- The upcoming Terafab product announcement could coincide with a merger proposal, per the host's own speculation
- Elon appears to want the merger but is legally constrained from discussing it on the earnings call
Hedges & Caveats
- Analysis based on interpretation of conference call commentary rather than official guidance
- Robo-taxi scaling projections depend on regulatory approval and deployment execution
- Current chart data shows sequential decline in total robotaxi miles quarter-over-quarter
- Unsupervised miles growth claims are based on management commentary without independently verified data