TSLABearexpired
Mark SpiegelTarget Price
$17
“Tesla you know you know last day look BMW was it was 60 billion euros or something it's got 3.2 billion shares outstanding so you're looking at I don't know 17 a share are you [ __ ] [ __ ] maybe I mean that's what that's what the damn thing is generously worth”@ 4:10 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BearishMark Spiegel views Tesla as absurdly overvalued at 70 times earnings, arguing the company is losing its technological edge to competitors with better charging speeds and interiors. He believes Tesla's recent massive price cuts will significantly reduce profit margins and that the company faces increasing competition from Chinese automakers and traditional manufacturers like GM.
Key arguments
- Tesla trading at 70 times earnings is fundamentally overvalued
- Company has slashed prices massively, reducing profit per car by approximately half
- Tesla now has trailing edge technology compared to competitors with faster charging and nicer interiors
- Full self-driving program contains blatant fraud with fake promotional videos
- Chinese competitors like BYD and traditional automakers like GM are releasing superior electric vehicles
- Tesla is losing market share and will face earnings contraction due to price cuts
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Acknowledges Tesla had a great head start in the EV market
- Recognizes Tesla as the most popular retail stock worldwide
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Spiegel acknowledges he is 'making up numbers' when discussing Tesla's beta relative to NASDAQ
- The video is a critical review/interview format rather than direct investment advice from the channel
- Spiegel's 10-year short position on Tesla has resulted in significant losses ('super ouch')
- Spiegel makes subjective claims about 'blatant fraud' without detailed substantiation in the excerpt
- The analysis relies heavily on opinion ('trust me I'm an expert') rather than rigorous financial modeling
The call
- Date said
- Mar 6, 2023
- Price at prediction
- $193.81
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- expired
- Resolution price
- $400.62
- Return
- -106.7%
- Notes
- Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $400.62.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $400.62.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Uses strong certainty language 'that's what the damn thing is generously worth' and has maintained short position for 10 years despite losses