TSLABearexpired
Mark SpiegelTarget Price
$18.50
“BMW has a market cap now of I think about 60 billion hold on one second let me let me look it up live hang on yeah roughly 60 billion US Dollars okay Tesla has over 3 billion shares outstanding roughly 3.15 billion if Tesla were valued the way BMW is it would sell for around 18 or 19 a share so and by the way that's only if the Tesla financials were legit which I think they're not”@ 20:12 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BearishSpiegel views Tesla as massively overvalued compared to traditional automakers like BMW. He believes Tesla should be valued similarly to BMW at around $18-19 per share, representing roughly 90% downside from current levels. He sees Tesla as having aged product lines and facing increasing competition from established automakers.
Key arguments
- Tesla sells ~1.6M cars annually vs BMW's 2M with better margins
- BMW has $60B market cap while Tesla has over $475B at $150/share
- Traditional automakers now producing better electric cars than Tesla
- Tesla has massive liabilities from full self-driving promises and potential lawsuits
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Assumes Tesla financials are legitimate
- Best case scenario valuation comparison
Hedges and caveats (from the video)
- Spiegel acknowledges Tesla short was a 'fluke' that caused significant losses despite overall fund outperformance
- Fund performance is audited and based on historical track record from 2005-2011
- Value investing strategy has underperformed during QE3 and mega-cap growth dominance
- Spiegel notes 'there are no gurus only cycles' suggesting market timing uncertainty
- Strategy relies on finding undervalued nano/micro-cap stocks which may require multi-year holding periods
The call
- Date said
- Feb 9, 2023
- Price at prediction
- $207.32
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- expired
- Resolution price
- $400.62
- Return
- -93.2%
- Notes
- Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $400.62.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Missing deadline. Prediction over 12 months old. Price: $400.62.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Detailed fundamental comparison with specific calculations and long-held conviction