Mark SpiegelTarget Price(split-adjusted)
$6.67
Said $100· today's shares after the 5-for-1 (Aug 2020) and 3-for-1 (Aug 2022) splits
“I'd say it's 90% that this stock trades under $100 within the next year”@ 11:29 · open at this moment on YouTube ↗
Thesis at the time
Strongly BearishThe SEC just filed fraud charges against Musk over the $420 take-private tweet, no investment bank will raise capital for Tesla given billions in civil-lawsuit liability, Model 3 is a lemon with reliability 4x worse than the next-worst car, and the whole company is dependent on free money in a rising-rate environment. Death-spiral puts at $150 and $100, June 2020 $200 puts, and short common make up the position. Odds of bankruptcy filing in the next year: 80%+.
Key arguments
- SEC fraud action against Musk + billions in civil lawsuits means no investment bank will raise capital for Tesla
- Board is liable under the $420-tweet lawsuits and may not have adequate D&O insurance
- Model 3 is a lemon — reliability 4x worse than the next-worst car, service centers already overwhelmed
- Whole nutty market is ending as rates climb; Tesla is 'completely dependent on free money in order to even exist'
- Plan A is fast bankruptcy from running out of money, Plan B is a busted growth story visible by early 2020 when competitor EVs hit showrooms
- Comparable: Valiant fell >90% after its initial 50% break — the best time to short valiant was AFTER the Philidor news, by analogy the best time to short Tesla may be right now
- Strategic buyout, if any, unlikely above $30/share — $10 extremely unlikely even in a buyout scenario
Counter-arguments acknowledged
- Very high short interest puts a floor under the stock (shorts don't all wait for zero to cover)
- Strategic investor could theoretically inject ~$5B at $15-20/share and spike the stock back to $200
The call
- Date said
- Sep 28, 2018
- Timeframe
- within the next year
- Deadline
- Sep 28, 2019
- Price at prediction
- $20.50
- Confidence
- high
- Specificity
- specific
How it resolved
- Status
- miss
- Resolution price
- $16.14
- Return
- +21.3%
- Notes
- Deadline passed. Only 32% progress toward target $6.67. Price: $16.14.
Why this resolved this way(resolution audit)
Rule that fired
Deadline passed. Only 32% progress toward target $6.67. Price: $16.14.
Full rules: docs/resolution-spec.md.
Confidence Reasoning
Explicit probability (90%) given directly in response to a bankruptcy-odds question; grounded in fundamental thesis + SEC fraud news as catalyst; position-backed (2020 $200 puts, short common).