Tesla Stock is FALLING Again.... (Stock Market is SCARED)
Overall Thesis
Tesla's -4% today is macro-driven, not company-driven. Q1 earnings were strong; CAPEX jump is bullish (Tesla has room to run capex much higher). Tesla is $500-600 pre-midterms, $900+ by EOY/Q1-2027. Short-term: hold the 20-day MA; a break above 50-day unlocks momentum. Don't go all-in with leverage; this is a hunker-down-and-wait market until November.
Narratives
Tesla's -4% day is macro, not company-specific. Q1 earnings had plenty to love — FSD subscription records, China FSD approval tracking, Optimus production lines installing August-September with production by end-of-year, cyber cab rolling off line. Capex jump to $25B is bullish, not bearish. Near-term Tesla holding 20-day MA support, testing 50-day MA resistance. Target: $500-600 pre-midterms, $900+ by early 2027. Don't overleverage; most of the move comes late-2026 into Q1 2027.
Key Arguments
- Today's -4% is macro / Iran-driven, not TSLA company-specific
- Q1: record FSD subscriptions, robotaxi expansion on track for 12 cities by EOY, FSD China approval progressing
- Optimus production lines installing Aug-Sep, production end of year
- Capex jump $20B → $25B: bullish, not bearish — Tesla has headroom
- Technical: holding 20-day MA is key support; 50-day MA is next resistance
- Expected most of the upside comes after midterms — late-2026 into Q1 2027
Hedges & Caveats
- Trade resolves on 20-day / 50-day MA — break below 20-day = pain
- Won't move much before midterms — patience required
- Trump-tweet risk factor is significant