QQQ

Kevin says he called a 'peak fear' bottom in mid-September tied to Iran de-escalation hopes and falling yields/oil, has been buying dips at tracked technical levels, and expects continued strength through the midterms with new all-time highs targeted by Black Friday.

Kevin claims his Alpha Report team called for QQQ to hit all-time highs by Black Friday, tied to his 'peak fear' thesis around Iran de-escalation, and says the market is now within 1% of that call. He frames recent price action (holding key levels like 715, 725, 735) as confirmation of his bullish call.

Kevin believes the Nasdaq-100 (via the Q's) has bottomed after bouncing off key support levels and will break through $800 by year-end as peak fear fades and hardware stocks re-rate higher.

Kevin recaps a week of largely accurate short-term trading calls on QQQ around key support levels near $700-$715, and reiterates an overall bullish medium-term stance on the market despite acknowledging two recession risk factors. He argues retail fear and AI infrastructure spending currently support higher prices.

Kevin believes markets are currently pricing in too many future rate hikes and that the pre-Fed-meeting nervousness represents a buying opportunity, with software and semiconductors expected to rally together once election-related fear passes. He frames the current pullback as a dip to buy rather than a reason for concern.

Kevin expects the Nasdaq-100 (Q's) to reach new all-time highs before year-end, driven by a potential resolution of the Iran conflict, disinflation, and continued AI/data-center strength lifting software, hardware, and rate-sensitive names together.

Kevin expects near-term volatility from a possible Fed rate hike, Iran negotiation delays, and the Anthropic IPO, but believes the Nasdaq will recover into and after the midterm elections. He frames the current dip as a buying opportunity ahead of a historically strong post-midterm period.

Kevin says QQQ, currently around 715, is being unfairly discounted due to AI bubble fears and should rally roughly 20-30% because the coordinated AI spending slowdown extends rather than pops the bubble.

Kevin believes the Nasdaq-100 has been consolidating due to war-related uncertainty and rate fears, but sees a setup for a breakout once those fears peak and resolve. He frames the current price action as a bottoming process ahead of a potential rally.

Kevin's central 'buy the dip' thesis is that markets have already priced in the worst case on Fed rate hikes, oil prices, and the Iran conflict, and that Trump is politically incentivized to strike an Iran deal before the midterms, which would push oil and yields down and rally stocks. He frames the current period as a bottoming process for tech ahead of a potential relief rally.

Kevin explains JP Morgan's tactically cautious stance on tech-heavy stocks over the next few weeks due to Fed uncertainty and a reluctance among traders to re-leverage after a hawkish Fed speech. He personally believes the near-term recession risk is low but is building a longer-term thesis that AI overbuilding, tariffs, and high oil prices could compound into a larger bubble risk a few years out.

Kevin expects a near-term 'hardware rally 2.0' fueled by AI capex and a dovish/no-hike Fed outcome at Jackson Hole to push the Nasdaq-100 (the Qs) to new all-time highs within the next six months, while separately maintaining a longer-term bearish view on AI spending sustainability.

Kevin expects a near-term 'hardware rally 2.0' driven by AI infrastructure spending (from Google, SpaceX, Nvidia-linked capex) to push the Nasdaq to new all-time highs over the next several months, even as he simultaneously worries about a longer-term AI bubble.

Kevin expects short-term volatility and further downside into Jackson Hole as Treasury Secretary Bessent's yield-suppression efforts fail, but turns bullish for the period after the midterm elections. He flags the upcoming Anthropic IPO as a potential catalyst that could expose cracks in AI-related spending and trigger a broader pullback.

Kevin expects short-term weakness in the Nasdaq-100, calling for a pullback to 685 after resistance around 715-735 was hit, framing this as a buy-the-dip setup ahead of Jackson Hole. He remains longer-term bullish into year-end despite the near-term caution.

The host believes QQQ could pull back to the 675-685 range before the Jackson Hole speech on August 27th due to rising hawkish-surprise risk from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, but views any such dip as a buying opportunity. Longer-term, he expects a slow grind higher for the rest of the year rather than a sharp V-shaped rally.

Kevin is bullish on QQQ and the broader market through the rest of 2026, citing loosened SEC disclosure rules for data-center securitizations, continued AI capex spending, and disinflation trends, but he is more cautious about a longer-term AI bubble popping. He explicitly says he is more bullish for Q3/Q4 2026 than for 2027.

Kevin notes the QQQ/Nasdaq 100 rejected the 675-680 level and sold off after Warsh's comments, reflecting market discomfort with the Fed's lack of forward guidance. He is hopeful for a short-term bounce next week once earnings and Fed commentary are digested, while cautioning about medium-term risks from higher bond yields.

The YouTuber expects QQQ to retest 617 today due to the pattern of rallies in the first 90 minutes getting sold off, with major catalysts coming in the next few days creating caution.

Kevin sees concerning technical patterns with QQQ forming a wedge that could lead to further downside. He's worried about liquidity constraints and retail being fully allocated, which could pressure the market lower.

Stock Moe expresses concern about high long-dated bond yields and debt levels, suggesting a market pullback is possible if conditions worsen. He frames this as a conditional risk rather than a firm call, particularly tied to a potential Fed rate hike.

Stock Moe expresses nervousness about the QQQ and is taking a more defensive posture, though he says he won't try to second-guess the trend. He frames this caution within a broader view that AI-leveraged retail darlings are all wagering on perfection.

Stock Moe argues the Nasdaq is now over 10% below its June high and in correction, and that the Fed's surprise hawkish tilt (three dissents favoring a hike, rising 30-year yield) raises the discount rate on future earnings, hitting high-multiple growth names hardest. He believes downward pressure continues and the charts show big money selling ahead of the Fed news.

The host argues that record short positioning by hedge funds and institutions on NASDAQ futures is historically a bullish contrarian signal, and he expects a strong rally in the broader market after the November midterm elections. He frames current volatility as event-risk hedging tied to the midterms and the Iran conflict rather than a sign of fundamental weakness.

The host sees the Nasdaq down over 10% from highs and expects continued volatility or a modest correction into the pre-midterm period, without expecting a large 20-50% crash. He suggests a further slide to the 20-day moving average, roughly 14% off highs, is a plausible scenario.

The host expects a continued pre-midterm correction in the Nasdaq followed by a bottom in October and a multi-month rally, favoring rotation into software, small caps, and cyclicals over AI hardware names during this period.

The speaker expects to dramatically outperform the NASDAQ this year despite current lagging, driven by the same AGI and productivity themes benefiting Tesla. The NASDAQ is viewed as setting up for a very big rally despite recent selloffs.

NASDAQ is in a healthy consolidation phase after running ahead of itself, taking a breather while traditional stocks catch up. This is not a crash but a rotation from AI stocks to broader market.