BTC

Stock Moe reviews multiple Fed hiking cycles and finds Bitcoin's reaction has been inconsistent, sometimes rising and sometimes falling after the first hike. He explicitly declines to give a rate-based price prediction but warns that a 10-year Treasury yield above 5% would be very bad for Bitcoin.

Stock Moe examined five prior death-cross events to argue the current weekly death cross is a weak bearish signal (40% historical hit rate for marking bottoms) compared to the 200-day reclaim pattern, which has a 3-for-3 record of marking major cycle lows. He believes crypto winter is likely thawing rather than definitively over, expecting a bottom before year-end.

Stock Moe views Bitcoin as range-bound in a channel since early July, saying he wouldn't get nervous unless it breaks below the 60K area. He also flags Michael Saylor's lack of buying as a downward pressure factor and expects an eventual capitulation dump before winter ends around October or November.

Stock Moe argues that Strategy (Michael Saylor's company) halting its Bitcoin purchases and now selling roughly $109 million worth removes a key source of price support, which he believes will push Bitcoin down toward the $40,000-$50,000 zone by the end of the crypto winter. He frames this as validating a call he made previously based on Saylor's own past comments about where BTC would trade without corporate buying.

Stock Moe flags that Bitcoin just lost a key support level near $64K and is currently trading around $63,571, and he expects a further test of roughly $62,752 within the coming week. He notes Bitcoin usually leads crypto markets and its current weakness is a bad sign for the broader space.

Bitcoin is in a bullish setup despite recent crashes, with massive institutional adoption occurring while consumer deleveraging happens. The speaker believes Bitcoin is building a strong technical floor around $60,000 and sees the current situation as a buying opportunity driven by fundamental improvements.

Bitcoin bounced exactly as predicted from the 60,000 support level using technical analysis. The extreme fear reading of 5 indicates maximum selling has occurred, leaving only buyers in the market.

Bitcoin's fundamental thesis as a store of value remains intact with fixed supply constraints. The macro environment with potential money printing under new Fed leadership and global inflation fears supports Bitcoin long-term. Technical analysis suggests a bounce around $60,000 with worst-case scenario at $30,000.

Bitcoin is the best inflation hedge and treasury-company adoption plus inflation guarantee it goes much higher long term.